By TONY WINTON
Who will decide Key Biscayne’s future? Some 8,080 people, that’s who. The number is the final tally of 2020 voter registrations for the 2020 general election, according to the Miami-Dade County elections department statistics for precinct 51.
The fate of 10 candidates for Village Council and a controversial resiliency bond will be decided by those voters — a pool that is up about 10% in size from a year ago.
But a deeper look at the data shows the Key Biscayne electorate has become a bit younger and more Democratic, based on public registration data compared to a year ago.
There are 2,288 Democrats, 2,502 Republicans, and 3,190 people with no party affiliation, or “NPA’s,” as they are called. Some 100 voters affiliated with minor parties. Compared to a year ago, Democratic registrations are up 18%, Republicans were up 6%, and NPA’s were up 7%.
While the island still is marginally Republican-leaning (29%), Democrats have made gains (24%). Unaffiliated voters are 37% of the electorate for 2020.
Compared to Miami-Dade County, however, Key Biscayne is an island of purple in a sea of blue when it comes to party affiliation. Countywide, about 41% are registered as Democrats, 27% are Republicans, and about 31% are NPA.
Even more striking is a surge in Key Biscayne young voters, up 25% from last year. There were 1,095 in the 18-25 age group, a gain of 217 voters. In fact, there were double-digit increases in voter registration for all age groups 55 and under, compared to only modest gains of about 4% for voters aged 61 and older.
The county elections department projects a record, 80 percent turnout, compared to the last presidential election in 2016, where turnout was 72%. (Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump on the Key, 58% to 37%).
A high number of 2020 mail-in ballots have already been returned 19 days before election day. As of Wednesday, 628,000 mail ballots had been sent out and 142,000 had been returned, nearly 23%. Early voting starts Monday.
TRACK YOUR VOTE — Did you know you can track if your mail ballot was counted? Here is the link.
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Tony Winton is the editor-in-chief of the Key Biscayne Independent and president of Miami Fourth Estate, Inc. He worked previously at The Associated Press for three decades winning multiple Edward R. Murrow awards. He was president of the News Media Guild, a journalism union, for 10 years. Born in Chicago, he is a graduate of Columbia University. His interests are photography and technology, sailing, cooking, and science fiction.