WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden’s long, painful battle with Republicans in Congress to secure urgently needed assistance for Ukraine will end today when he signs into law a $95 billion war aid measure that also includes support for Israel, Taiwan and other allies.
Both of Florida’s Republican senators, Rick Scott and Marco Rubio, voted against the bill, part of a group of 15 to oppose the measure.
But significant damage has been done to the Biden administration’s effort to help Ukraine repel Russia’s brutal invasion during the funding impasse that dates back to August, when the Democratic president made his first emergency spending request for Ukraine aid. Even with a burst of new weapons and ammunition, it is unlikely Ukraine will immediately recover after months of setbacks.
Biden is expected to quickly approve the transfer of an initial aid package of about $1 billion in military assistance — the first tranche from about $61 billion allocated for Ukraine, according to U.S. officials. It is expected to include air defense capabilities, artillery rounds, armored vehicles and other weapons to shore up Ukrainian forces who have seen morale sink as Russian President Vladimir Putin has racked up win after win.
In a statement after the Senate passed the package Tuesday night, Biden said he would sign it as soon as he receives it on Wednesday.
“This critical legislation will make our nation and world more secure as we support our friends who are defending themselves against terrorists like Hamas and tyrants like Putin,” Biden said.
But longer term, it remains uncertain if Ukraine — after months of losses in Eastern Ukraine and sustaining massive damage to its infrastructure — can make enough progress to sustain American political support before burning through the latest influx of money.
“It’s not going in the Ukrainians’ favor in the Donbas, certainly not elsewhere in the country,” said White House national security spokesman John Kirby, referring to the eastern industrial heartland where Ukraine has suffered setbacks. “Mr. Putin thinks he can play for time. So we’ve got to try to make up some of that time.”
Russia now appears focused on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Russian forces have exploited air defense shortages in the city, pummeling the region’s energy infrastructure, and looking to shape conditions for a potential summer offensive to seize the city.
Scott, who is up for reelection in November, said he voted no because the bill didn’t contain spending controls for both humanitarian aid to Gaza as well as the funds destined for Ukraine.
“This bill allows President Biden to send billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars in unaccountable aid to Ukraine, including billions to pay the salaries of Ukrainian politician,” Scott said.
Rubio said he was voting no because the bill didn’t deal with immigration and other issues. “This is not a compromise. This is legislative blackmail, and I will not vote for blackmail,” he said on the floor.
The comments of the two Florida senators stood in contrast to that of other Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. He suggested his fellow Republicans’ holding up the funding could have a lasting impact on Ukraine’s hopes of winning the war.
“Make no mistake: Delay in providing Ukraine the weapons to defend itself has strained the prospects of defeating Russian aggression,” McConnell said Tuesday. “Dithering and hesitation have compounded the challenges we face.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson delayed a vote on the supplemental aid package for months as members of his party’s far right wing, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, threatened to move to oust him if he allowed a vote to send more assistance to Ukraine. Those threats persist.
Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive 2024 presidential GOP nominee, has complained that European allies have not done enough for Ukraine. While he stopped short of endorsing the supplemental funding package, his tone has shifted in recent days, acknowledging that Ukraine’s survival is important to the United States.
Indeed, many European leaders have long been nervous that a second Trump presidency would mean decreased U.S. support for Ukraine and for the NATO military alliance. The European anxiety was heightened in February when Trump in a campaign speech warned NATO allies that he “would encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to countries that don’t meet defense spending goals if he returns to the White House.
In private conversations with Johnson, Biden and White House officials leaned into the stakes for Europe if Ukraine were to fall to Russia. Five days after Johnson was formally elected speaker, national security adviser Jake Sullivan outlined to him the administration’s strategy on Ukraine and assured him that accountability measures were in place in Ukraine to track where the aid was going — an effort to address a common complaint from conservatives.
On explicit orders from Biden himself, White House officials also avoided directly attacking Johnson over the stalled aid — a directive the president repeatedly instilled in his senior staff.
For his part, Johnson came off to White House officials as direct and an honest actor throughout the negotiations, according to a senior administration official. Biden had success finding common ground with Republicans earlier in his term to win the passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure deal, legislation to boost the U.S. semiconductor industry, and an expansion of federal health care services for veterans exposed to toxic smoke from burn pits. And he knew there was plenty of Republican support for further Ukraine funding.
At frustrating moments during the negotiations, Biden urged his aides to “just keep talking, keep working,” according to the official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal discussions.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Biden’s instincts to resist pressuring Johnson proved correct.
“Joe Biden has a very good sense of when to heavily intervene and when to try to shape things,” Schumer said.
The $61 billion can help triage Ukrainian forces, but Kyiv will need much more for a fight that could last years, military experts say.
Realistic goals for the months ahead for Ukraine — and its allies — include avoiding the loss of major cities, slowing Russia’s momentum and getting additional weaponry to Kyiv that could help them go on the offensive in 2025, said Bradley Bowman, a defense strategy and policy analyst at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington.
“In our microwave culture, we tend to want immediate results,” Bowman said. “And sometimes things are just hard and you can’t get immediate results. I think Ukrainian success is not guaranteed, but Russian success is if we stop supporting Ukraine.”